The contrasts in west Africa are huge. At one end of the scale is oil-rich Nigeria. Its economy expanded by almost 7% last year and slightly more in 2008, and Nigeria continues to be one of the region's most prosperous countries, despite suffering continuing political uncertainty after its leader spent several months in a Saudi Arabian clinic. Two conflicting trends determine the longer-term prospects of this massive region of Africa, bounded by Nigeria to the east and Senegal to the west, with Cote d'Ivoire and Benin among other smaller states in between. The first is a growing confidence in their economic position in the wider African region -- indeed among emerging markets more generally. The second is a wave of political instability. The recent political story, though, is not so opt...
... to criminal enterprises); see also NICK KOCHAN, THE WASHING MACHINE: HOW MONEY LAUNDERING ...
The proposals from regulators, politicians and bankers have flowed as freely as did the bonuses in the earlier, pre-crisis world. Increasing the requirement on banks to put capital aside is probably the most frequently touted solution. It also has considerable merit as it hits at bankers' tendency to lend more than their assets can justify. Banks are currently required to set aside capital based on their assessment of the risk of their portfolios. Bank structures, as well as financial requirements need to be assessed in the context of extreme risk, says Stephen Lewis, the chief economist at Monument Securities. Many bankers have denied themselves bonuses in an attempt to defuse the political assault, they are making efforts to deal with the charge that bankers have earned their bonuses ...
Despite its recent progress, many of Russia's industrial and financial structures are in great need of reform. Russia's addiction to oil has never been more sharply evident than recently. The fall of the oil price last year sent the country into a maelstrom of despair. Russia's woes were further increased by falling metal prices, as these contribute a significant element to gross domestic product. In a bid to stimulate lending, the Russian central bank cut interest rates twice in less than three weeks in April this year. This has put the refinancing rate at 12% and the seven-day repo rate at 9%. As for the immediate economic outlook, retail consumption is unlikely to grow significantly until the second half of this year at the earliest, says Alexandra Evtifyeva, senior economist, VTB Ca...
Banks are on the back foot as regulators bid to outdo each other in the severity of their clampdown on disclosure and banking governance. Banks are now required to find a regulatory formula to fend off intervention and criticism. While regulators would certainly like the banking system to reflect their exhortations, the reality is that economic events will bear down more forcefully on banks than the longwinded process of restructuring the banking system in one of the many ways that have been advocated. But it would take an unusually percipient observer to predict the shape of banking -- or indeed whether banking will be any better protected from its exposure to financial collapses than it is today. It is safe to predict, though, that bankers will remain the object of political and publi...
The future of many of the world's largest banks will be determined by a group of officials in government offices. Many of these civil servants have no experience of the private sector, let alone of bank management. This new swath of bank owners also has a very different set of priorities to the conventional institutional or private shareholder. While the relationship between private and public sector owners and managers has the potential for conflict, dissent has remained muted. This is because both parties have a vested interest in maintaining good relations. Governments may want to shake up banks, but they also want to create institutions with a strong private sector culture. Private sector managers have no wish to irritate the government, as the state is their best protector against ...
With each new phase of the current financial crisis, a new area of neglect of regulation is disclosed. The discovery of an apparently massive fraud at the hedge fund run by Bernard Madoff, the former chairman of Nasdaq, looks set to trigger a crackdown on an investment area that has been notable for its lack of regulation. What is clear is that the need for a review of global institutions has never been more urgent. One institution on which much will depend in the shake-up of global financial regulation is the Basel system. Basel is the series of risk-based rules devised under the auspices of the Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlements that governs banks. A central and global regulator faces practical obstacles, but a regulatory authority could be created for each power blo...
As much of the developed and developing world struggles to get back on track in the wake credit crunch, the economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear, as a group, to be weathering the turmoil remarkably well. But while the economic progress of the various countries in the region is often considered to be closely linked, vast disparities remain. The vigor of these economies stems from the relatively recent arrival of market forces and capitalist structures. These are no more than 18 years old and were created in the wake of the break-up of the Soviet system. The Ukraine authorities are trying to reduce inflationary pressures in the economy by sticking to relatively tight fiscal and monetary policies. Hungary is not the dark horse, but it is not the favorite in terms of growth and co...
The evolution of Turkey's role in the Middle East and beyond was clearly on display at a late-October risk management conference in Beirut. The guest speaker at the conference was the Turkish central bank governor, DurmusYilmaz. This was a full-scale delegation, and it illustrated the growing political rapprochement between Turkey and the Arab world. Riad Salameh, the governor of the central bank of Lebanon and Adib Mayaleh, the governor of Syria's central bank, attended the conference and spoke glowingly of their Turkish colleague.
...- Nick Kochan. Copyright Global Finance Media Inc. Dec 20...
With their own economies in disarray and the prospect of their primary markets in Europe and beyond slipping into recession, many of Central and Eastern Europe's young democracies are facing an uncertain future. Many observers believe the economic turmoil Central and Eastern European countries are enduring now has the potential to cause long-lasting political damage to the region. Analysts say the manner in which Western multilateral and economic agencies advocate and push through radical salvaging measures for the region's governments, which are desperate for their money but politically unstable, will be critical over the coming months. Latvia, like Georgia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Ukraine, had experienced five years of remarkable, but ultimately unsustainable, growth. To fund the growth...
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