... own political careers by entrenching incumbents. Third, they argue that defendants violated New ... not affect those made eligible for reelection in November 2009 as a result of the Mayor's pro... not dispute that the incumbent reelection rate in New York City is approximately 98%. Appellees o...
...) 1.6% by the second quarter of 2010; the rate of unemployment peaked at just below 10% and has r...But in order to be assured of reelection in 1936, he had to assemble a new and hopefully pe...--would generate more votes for the incumbent--in states where presidential races tended to be "...
... in the electorate tends to favor incumbents over challengers, we are left with a paradoxical a... (1988) explains that the willingness to rate a candidate on a feeling thermometer indicates tha...
... prosecutor's office: they choose the incumbent, even more often than they do for legislators and ... the public mood and lose their reelection campaigns. It appears, however, that incumbent proosecutors win reelection at an extremely high rate (95% of the races they enter, and 71% of all races...
The authors examine the dynamics of public opinion formation and change around a sitting president and their implications for reelection contests. Because of the biases inherent in information processing and the information environment, two distinct, but simultaneous, effects of citizen learning during a presidential term are expected. For those with prior opinions of the president, learning contributes to more polarized evaluations of the president. For those initially uncertain about the president, learning contributes to opinion formation about the president. Because the gap in uncertainty generally favors the incumbent over a lesser-known challenger, races with an incumbent presidential candidate are typically marked, perhaps paradoxically, by both a polarization of public opinion a...
... (1988) explains that the willingness to rate a candidate on a feeling thermometer indicates tha...
This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideological polarization, and contested nominations in both parties inclined the electorate to an even division. McCain's more centrist record and Obama's race also seemed to favor the Republicans. Taken together, these factors set the stage for a closely decided election. It was shaping up that way in the polls until the Wall Street meltdown hit in mid-September. It was the "game changer" that tipped the election to Obama.
... that voters' expectations set a growth rate of about 3% as the politically neutral point betwe... vote margins in the 35 open seat and incumbent elections from 1868 to 2004. Elections are grouped... Bush lost approval between his 2004 reelection and the 2008 election. As Table 2 shows, President...
... between institutional shareholders and incumbent boards of directors of U.S. public companies. This... (19) whose members typically stand for reelection once a year. Once elected, the board members in th.... The normal rate of contribution for covered employees is generally...
... crave nothing more than they crave reelection to office, and nearly all the incumbents who sough... succeeded--outcomes that imply a reelection rate greater than 98 percent for incumbents who ran in ...
Large majorities of those who remained Republican between 2004 and 2008 favor the Republican position on these issues, but the opinions of those in the independent category are much closer to the opinions of stable Republicans than to the Democratic side. [...] the battering the Republicans experienced in 2006-2008 was much more a result of dissatisfaction with the performance of the Bush administration than an indication of a policy realignment in the electorate.
... that Republicans had benefitted from illicit rate contributions. Thus, the day after the election Ru... generate significant losses for the incumbent party. But political science forecasting models ba... of these defectors did not seek reelection in 2008, so there is simply not enough variation o...
... mounting effective campaigns against incumbent officeholders, thereby reducing democratic account...§2805a(e). Incumbents seeking reelection to statewide office may spend no more than 85% of ... limits relate to our incumbent reelection rates. See Brief for State of Connecticut et al. as Ami...
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