According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, published in October, developing Asia is expected to continue to lead the global economic recovery, with projected economic growth of 8.4% in 2011. The two economies expected to lead the recovery in Asia are China, with projected growth of 9.6% for 2011, and India, which the IMF expects to grow by 8.4% in 2011. A topic that is likely to continue to dominate debate in 2011 is the growing global role of China's currency, the renminbi. Alex Thursby, CEO, Asia-Pacific, Europe and America, ANZ Bank, says there needs to be a common framework for clearing and settlement and governance in Asia, starting with US dollars and then including the renminbi. There also needs to be a more consistent approach toward the adoption of the proposed Basel III ca...
WASHINGTON -- The global economy is expected to log solid growth this year and next, although elevated energy prices and inflation hover as risks, the chief of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. Speaking to a group of reporters, Rodrigo Rato predicted that global growth this year will clock in at close to 5 percent and should be about the same next year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in its latest World Economic Outlook that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy as early as 2016. IMF economists believe the Chinese economy would by then reach $19 trillion, compared to a U.S. economy of just $18.8 trillion. This was seized as proof of superiority of the Chinese model of state-led capitalism and the end of American economic dominance. Don't believe it. It's a bad idea to draw such an expansive conclusion from a single number. Long-term economic forecasts, especially linear predictions such as the IMF's, are notoriously inaccurate. Five years is a long time, and there are indications that China is in the midst of an unsustainable bubble.
The state export numbers are adjusted for seasonal variation by infometrica to bring them in line with the national trade numbers - a statistical process that smooths out monthly fluctuations for factors such as the number of days in a month and holidays, thus truly providing a clear picture of monthly performance similar to the national numbers. Presenting IMF's World Economic Outlook, Olivier Blanchard, IMF's Director of Research, amply pointed out that "the world economy has entered a major downturn after being hit by two very large shocks: a surge in oil and commodity prices and the expanding financial crisis.
We are back in a danger zone," says a top economist at the International Monetary Fund. Though an understatement, it captures the central paradox of this year's annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank. Everyone is alarmed at the swift deterioration of the economic outlook, but there is no leadership -- no consensus on what to do or, even when crude agreement exists, little conviction that practical politics will permit action. There is a hazardous vacuum of ideas and power. Actually, what needs to be done is not obscure. Europe is now the flash point of global concern. Most of its major countries are heavily indebted. The economy has slowed to a crawl; the latest IMF forecast (perhaps optimistic) puts next year's growth at about 1 percent. Banks are threatened by their expos...
WASHINGTON -- The United States is headed for a recession, dragging world economic growth down along with it, the International Monetary Fund concluded in a sobering new forecast Wednesday that underscored the damage inflicted from the housing and credit debacles. The IMF's World Economic Outlook served as a reminder of just how swiftly economic and financial fortunes in the United States and beyond can unravel, affecting people, investors and businesses around the globe. The fund slashed growth projections for the United States -- the epicenter of the woes -- and for the world economy. The fragile state of affairs greatly raises the odds that the global economy could fall into a slump, the IMF said.
WASHINGTON - "We are back in a danger zone," says a top economist at the International Monetary Fund. Though an understatement, it captures the central paradox of this year's annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank. Everyone is alarmed at the swift deterioration of the economic outlook, but there is no leadership - no consensus on what to do or, even when crude agreement exists, little conviction that practical politics will permit action.
... Monetary Fund, 2010; United Nations, 2009a; World Bank, 2009). The agencies and banks continue to us... Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, May 2000: Asset Prices and the Business Cycle, In...
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