In early December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced its determination that the US economy had been in recession since December 2007, notwithstanding the positive growth in real gross domestic product registered during the first two quarters of 2008. Still, the economy grew by a quarterly average of nearly 1.9% during the first two quarters of 2008, fueled in part by a significant improvement in net exports as well as fiscal stimulus-supported personal consumption. Labor market conditions have weakened noticeably since late 2007 -- since the recession began in December 2007, a total of 3.6 million jobs have been lost. Rising food prices and the energy price surge through the middle of last year boosted headline inflation, which peaked at 5.6% in the 12 months throu...
Economic activity picked up substantially in the third quarter of 2009, after the pace of economic contraction slowed noticeably in the second quarter. Although the economy has stabilized and there are clear signs of recovery in some sectors, improvements to date are modest compared to the declines during the recession. The US economy experienced its first four-quarter contraction since 1991 during the four quarters of 2008, as real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.9%. In 2008, consumer spending -- which accounts for about 70% of GDP-registered its largest four-quarter drop since 1974, falling by 1.8%. Labor market conditions deteriorated throughout 2008 and conditions worsened during the first part of 2009, although the pace of job loss has moderated during the year. Headline inf...
Did you know that federal government spending and revenues in 1968 as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) were almost identical to the levels in 2008? The surprising fact is that for the past 50 years (until the last two years) federal spending and tax revenues have been remarkably constant as a percentage of GDP, as can be seen in the accompanying chart. What is new is the big jump in federal government spending in the past two years, from an average of about one-fifth of GDP to about one-quarter of GDP, and to this must be added another 13 percent for state and local government spending as a percentage of GDP, causing the total government sector to rise from about one-third of GDP to almost 40 percent.
BANK NEGARA MALAYSIA (BNM) estimates that the country's 2008 gross domestic product (GDP) will grow between 5.0% and 6.0%. But given the greater uncertainty on the external front, can Malaysia sustain its growth trajectory for 2008? Eyebrows have been raised over BNM's 5.8% growth target for Malaysia in 2008. Such discomfort arose following the increasing possibility of our major trading partner, the United States, likely to dip into recession. The US economy is in deep rout, arising from the housing market recession that is taking a toll on consumer spending. Adding on, the years of elevated oil prices and a weakening housing market have caught up on consumer spending. Adding to their woes is the rising unemployment rate.
The recession that started in December 2007 ranks as one of the longest and deepest. And it's unclear when we're going to feel like the recession is behind us. Real gross domestic product growth in 2008 was an anemic 0.4 percent, followed by -2.4 percent in 2009. Last year's decline was the largest one-year drop since the 1946 economy was readjusting after World War II. Not pretty.
The UAE government responded quickly to the global financial meltdown last fall, guaranteeing all bank deposits last October and creating a $19 billion rescue facility. The Dubai government's $10 billion bond sale in February 2009 to the UAE central bank has boosted confidence and demonstrated with absolute clarity that the country is united in the face of the challenge. With $600 billion of foreign exchange reserves and sovereign investments, the UAE has considerable resources. The country's priority will be to invest in domestic infrastructure and education to create the right environment for growth. The UAE economy, the second largest in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia, recorded growth in gross domestic product of 7.4% in 2008. The International Monetary Fund expects that to slide...
Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy, comprising half the nation's nonfarm, private gross domestic product. And small business -- along with the rest of the economy -- has been struggling during 2008 and 2009. But Americans are resilient and continue to become entrepreneurs.
MORAINE -- A weaker dollar bodes well for regional manufacturers in 2008 while the local job market is yielding some good news, an economist said Thursday. In August and September, employment in the Dayton region grew compared with corresponding periods in 2006, said Richard Stock, director of the University of Dayton Business Research Group. Stock spoke to business leaders during the National City 2008 Economic Forecast Luncheon at The Mandalay Banquet Center.
In the first quarter of 2008, real US gross domestic product increased by 0.9%, beating initial estimates of 0.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. And while that is far from stellar performance, it could help Ito undermine the persistent pessimism that has dogged the US and hammered the greenback. While the data is soft, Action Economics' managing director of global fixed income Kim Rupert says she does not anticipate a US recession. Another cause for pessimism is the US housing market, which is central to understanding the current economic slowdown. Unemployment will continue to rise for months, but one bright spot on the horizon for tax payers and businesses is tax rebates and the economic stimulus checks that are now arriving.
Some analysts and economists recently warned that the U.S. economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the U.S. economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per...
... to conserve energy and increase the production of alternative energy sources. An oil price increaase may lower real gross domestic product (GDP) growth through other channe...
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