There has been a resurgence of interest in dynamic factor models for use by policy advisors. Dynamic factor methods can be used to incorporate a wide range of economic information when forecasting or measuring economic shocks. This article introduces dynamic factor models that underlie the data-rich methods and also tests whether the data-rich models can help a benchmark autoregressive model forecast alternative measures of inflation and real economic activity at horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months ahead. The authors find that, over the past decade, the data-rich models significantly improve the forecasts for a variety of real output and inflation indicators. For all the series that they examine, the authors find that the data-rich models become more useful when forecasting over longer hor...
Editorial - Economic forecasting - Brief article
Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent - Brief Article
... vendors, see the online version of this article at journalofaccountancy.com; enter 20114354 in the... Forecast Updates VARIABILITY CRITICALLY (Economic Relevance) LOW HIGH HIGH Less Frequent Routine Fre...
The Missouri economy, like that of the US, continued to grow in Calendar Year 2007, but has come up against the strong currents of the housing and auto manufacturing slowdowns. After peaking at record levels in the spring, Missouri employment declined slightly into the autumn. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics' data, through November 2007, the state gained 12,000 jobs over the previous twelve months, growth of 0.4%, and 87,900 jobs since January 2005. Missouri's economic outlook over the next two years is similar to that of the US, weighed down by the general outlook in the housing and automotive industries. Revenue forecasting is challenging under the best of circumstances. When uncertainties overshadow the economic forecast, the undertaking becomes even more difficult. Articl...
...Revenue Limitation Amendment. Article X of the Missouri Constitution establishes a reven...
This article seeks to (1) identify forecasting techniques used to estimate taxable sales in California counties; (2) analyze which of these produces the most accurate estimate; (3) document what prevented officials from using the most accurate forecasting technique in California counties; and (4) determine what forecasting approach would work best for individual counties. This research generally confirms previous research findings that judgmental approaches are the most commonly used method of revenue forecasting in smaller localities. In terms of accuracy, econometric models outperform other quantitative methods, particularly compared to trend line fitting and extrapolation-by-average approaches. The "not now but later" perception in the use of econometric models can be ascribed to Cal...
... of mathematical relationships among economic variables, typically estimated by regression techn...
Business Research Economic Advisors - International Council of Cruise Lines - Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates - Brief Article
Ongoing efforts to find the best method for predicting recessions leave many questions unresolved. One approach with an excellent track record is the term spread model of Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991). When the yield on a three-month Treasury bill rises higher than the yield on a ten-year Treasury note, the model forecasts that a recession will begin twelve months in the future. This article investigates whether changes in the term premium tend to distort the term spread's recession signals. The article begins by decomposing the term spread into an expectations component and a term premium component, based on the Kim and Wright (2005) term premium estimates. Next, the article constructs recession forecasting models based on these components, following the approach of Estrella and Hard...
... practice by regional organizations? This article presents a brief overview of existing key EWR mech... organizations--the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States/Economic Communit..., and Mark Woodward, "A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability," paper presented a...
ABSTRACT . This article reports findings from a study of retail E-Commerce... year's revenue, trend extension, and economic indicators. Regression, decomposition, econometric...
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