The motivation for this paper began with casual empiricisms regarding the brief distributed lag of retail gasoline prices behind crude oil futures. We developed a model consistent with our hypothesis and tested it with econometrics using statistical data that include the sharp decrease in crude oil price futures in late summer 2008. We found that our model is a consistent and efficient estimator of the actual gasoline prices over most of our sample period. However, random shocks to gasoline prices, like Hurricane Ike in 2008, cause the model to have problems accurately predicting gas prices. We conclude that our estimated model and simulations provide reasonable support for our hypothesis that crude oil price futures can predict spot retail unleaded gasoline prices.
Oil futures briefly crossed the $120-a-barrel threshold Monday, before retreating slightly, amid concerns about possible supply disruptions. Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose to a new trading record of $120.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before futures retreated slightly to settle up $3.65 at a record $119.97.
Crude oil futures were little changed amid expectations the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decide this week to allow members to keep producing more than their quota limits to help lower prices. OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, will leave the quotas unchanged when it meets in Iran Wednesday, the group's President Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Ahmad al-Sabah said Saturday, according to the Kuwaiti News Agency. Crude oil prices last week reached their highest since October amid forecasts for increased global demand.
NEW YORK - Traders concerned about softening energy consumption in the wake of Hurricane Katrina Friday sent crude-oil futures to their lowest levels in five weeks. The October crude futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped to a low of $62.85 before settling down $1.75 at $63, the lowest settlement price since Aug. 5.
SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures fell today after the president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said oil- producing nations may decide to increase production at this week's meeting in Iran. Light, sweet crude for April delivery fell 38 cents to $54.05 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe. Heating oil fell more than a cent to $1.5280 a gallon.
NEW YORK Stocks finished an uncertain session modestly higher Monday despite a sharp rise in crude oil prices and unease over the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting. Crude futures rallied in afternoon trading, reversing last week's trend and adding to worries about high energy prices as the summer driving season approaches. A barrel of light crude settled at $50.92, up $1.20, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
SINGAPORE - Crude oil futures prices rose above $55 a barrel today, as resistance surfaced to Saudi Arabia's call for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production quotas. Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 21 cents to $55.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. Heating oil prices rose less than a cent to $1.5370 a gallon.
.75 a barrel on concern supply from Venezuela, the fourth- largest exporter to the U.S., may be disrupted by violence after a gunman fired on voters in Sunday's referendum. One person was killed and another 12 injured in Venezuela's capital of Caracas as they stood in line to vote on whether to recall President Hugo Chavez. Petroleos de Venezuela, the state oil company, doubled security at its fields, refineries and storage tanks before the vote.
WASHINGTON - Crude oil and gasoline plunged to the lowest level in six weeks on signs that record fuel prices are slowing growth in global energy demand. Signs of weaker demand are hanging over the market," said Tom Bentz, an oil broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. "There has been a tremendous rise in prices over the past year, which had to have an effect.
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