Much research has addressed the question of how much money can safely be withdrawn from a retirement portfolio without prematurely running out of money (shortfall risk). Instead of constant (inflation adjusted) annual withdrawals, this study uses withdrawal amounts (and optionally, asset allocations) that are modified every five years over a 30-year withdrawal horizon. A bootstrap is used initially to obtain the conditional probability rules. Further simulations demonstrate that periodic (every five years) adjustments can decrease the risk of running out of money as well as increase the amount withdrawn, as compared to a "constant withdrawal amount" strategy.
This paper is concerned with the extent to which rehabilitation tax credits affect the conditional probability of commercial real estate rehabilitation. The analysis suggests that rehabilitation tax credits have been a significant determinant of the conditional probability of rehabilitation in the Boston office market. A significant portion of rehabilitation tax credit investment is investment that would have been invested elsewhere, about 60% to 65% in certain periods, but rising to as high as 90% in other periods. The findings indicate that the rehabilitation tax credit has a significant and substantial influence on the conditional probability of rehabilitation. The findings also reveal that the greatest amount of slippage, not too surprisingly, generally occurs when the tax credit is...
Conditional release status; motion for continuance; expert opinions with reasonable degree of medical probability of certainty; independent psychologist prior to forced medication for NGRI; forced medications.
The public releases of the 2004 and 2005 HMDA data have engendered a lively debate over the pricing of mortgage credit and its implications regarding the treatment of minority mortgage borrowers. This research uses aggregated proprietary data provided by lenders and an endogenous switching regression model to estimate the probability of taking out a subprime mortgage, and annual percentage rate (APR) conditional on getting either a subprime or prime mortgage. The findings reveal that up to 90% of the African American APR gap, and 85% of the Hispanic APR gap, is attributable to observable differences in underwriting, costing, and market factors that appropriately explain mortgage pricing differentials. Although any potential discrimination is problematic and should be addressed, the anal...
... is not the desired one of the "probability" that p in the interval is 95%. Instead, we have t... data by providing a way to compute conditional probabilities of events. For instance, if interest...
If such sentences did have truth values, then the objective conditional probability of such a sentence being true and X's subjective probability that it is true would be meaningful concepts. For those concerned with argument evaluation, especially with arguments from other periods in the history of philosophy or even from other cultures, with having a rigorous way of distinguishing what is problematic in such arguments with appreciating their strong points, we commend Camp's Confusion as well repaying their study.-James B. Freeman, Hunter College of The City University of New York.
Based on a statistic known as "first-passage time probability" that accounts for exposure to loss during the entire investment horizon, it is shown that dollar cost averaging relative to lump sum investing can significantly reduce the probability, magnitude, and duration of enduring a large loss. This is especially relevant to investors with minimum loss thresholds, possible interim withdrawal needs, changing asset allocations, and/or an uncertain retirement date. For investing in stocks with a 5-year horizon, the probability of enduring a loss can be reduced from over 90% to less than 50%, the dollar amount of the conditional expected shortfall can be reduced by 65%, and the expected time one may have to endure a loss is reduced from 1.5 years to 4 months.
... backup cause would have raised the probability of the effect to the same degree as did the actual... A probabilistic theory that relies on conditional probabilities will face similar difficulties. Cons...
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) effects imply the probability of large losses is greater than standard mean-variance analysis suggests. Accurately capturing GARCH for housing markets is vital for portfolio management. Previous investigations of GARCH in housing have focused on narrow regions or aggregated effects of GARCH across markets, imposing one nationwide effect. This paper tests fifty state housing markets for GARCH, and develops individual GARCH models for those states, allowing for different effects in each. Results indicate there are GARCH effects in over half the states, and the signs and magnitudes vary widely, highlighting the importance of estimating separate GARCH models for each market.
Based on surveys of members of the National Association of Forensic Economics (NAFE), the predominant method for calculating worklife expectancy involves the use of Markov process statistical worklife expectancy tables, with the LPE method as a distant second, use of a fixed retirement date as a close third, and with median or mean years to final labor force separation a distant fourth. However, no paper has specifically addressed the reasons why the majority of forensic economists (or at least a majority of those completing NAFE surveys) apparently feel that statistical worklife tables compiled by standard Markov process models are superior to calculations based on the LPE version of Markov process models. A statement arguing that the LPE method is superior to standard statistical work...
...The "L" in LPE stands for the probability that an average individual in a particular demogra... for the three factors determine the conditional probability that an average individual in a given ...
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