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One option spread strategy that requires a trader to estimate relevant high and low strike prices between the trade date and expiration is the short option strangle. Future price ranges may be estimated based on charts of past price movements or by various forms of fundamental analysis. Another method is the LLP (log-log parabola) option-pricing model. This method is compatible with the Black-Scholes option-pricing model that is the basis for most valuations in the option market. The regression equation computed by the LLP model generates predicted call prices that closely match current market prices. Since the early 1970s, option markets have been priced by the Black-Scholes model or similar logarithm-based models. LLP call and put price calculations reflect market pricing and compute ...
Prices of December futures for corn, wheat and oats reached the peak of a four-month rising trend in early June 2009. What followed was a difficult summer for all grains including the bean complex -- soybeans, meal and oil. Causes for price decline's included a combination of increased planting, good weather conditions and lower demand for grains. The option market cannot predict what will happen to grain futures prices, but it can and does predict the likely range in futures prices over the time to expiration. Option price curves for calls on December 2009 corn, wheat and oats are combined on "Grain call options." "Predicted price spreads" shows the upper and lower breakeven prices computed by the LLP option model for corn, wheat, oats, soybean meal and soybean oil. At breakeven, the o...
Futures contracts that are relatively trendless invite trades that generate profits from movement in volatility instead of price. Delta-neutral spreads fit this need because typically, at least initially, the assets in the trade offset each other in terms of price changes relative to price movements in the underlying asset. Delta-neutral trades are similar to short option strangles in which a put and call are sold short near the breakeven strike prices. Both trades force the futures market price to move toward breakeven before the trade incurs a loss, and both have unlimited losses beyond the breakeven prices. Higher total premiums from the options sold occur with the delta-neutral trade because the calls are sold at the market.
...(3) For an option instrument, in addition to the foregoing informatiion, the type of option (i.e., call or put) and strike prices; and. (4) Such other inf...
Online stock trading flourished despite the setback of the tech stock implosion. But supporting price quotes for hundreds of option strike prices on hundreds of futures contracts and delivering them in real-time was a major challenge for the exchanges. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) with Globex and the Chicago Board of Trade with LiffeConnect both say their technology is sophisticated enough to handle more complex options, and electronic option volume continues to grow. The CME's mass quoting system is now capable of compressing 200 quotes into a single message and sending a refreshed message once every second, which allows them to continuously update and change their pricing. The CME offers free live quotes, which gives the retail trader a mechanism to look at prices before they...
... a mechanism to look at prices before they call their broker, thereby helping to dispel the inform...
The year 2010 is an exceptional time for currencies in terms of cash prices, futures and options. From Dec 9, 2009, to May 18, 2010, the US dollar index has risen from approximately 74 to 86, while the euro plunged from more than $1.50 to less than $1.25. With currency prices having moved so decisively this is a good time to look at the consensus of the options market as it views currencies over the period May 2010 to March 2011. The futures price on that date is $1.2395 per September euro, and it is noted that the predicted prices are generally accurate to one hundredths of one cent. Breakeven prices at each strike price show the price range forecast by the options market. Time value for put and call options may be measured by the relative heights of the option price curves.
...``covered call'' strategy applied to the S&P 500 Composite Price ... Index that is compiled from the opening prices of component stocks underlying the S&P 500 Index. ...
For futures contracts, option-pricing models provide a significant source of information on the market consensus regarding price movements until expiry. Given the quantity of price information available through option price data the results of viewing future price predictions included in basic option pricing models seem well worth the effort. The breakeven prices are those that will permit a trader who uses a delta-neutral trade, using the delta slope (hedge ratio) to determine how many call options to buy in hedging a short sale of one futures contract. It is easy to see the relationship of the upper and lower breakeven prices with volatility measures. Traders in the option market make predictions on future price movements as they estimate the chances of profits or losses on various co...
...Example of Old vs. New Option Prices: 10-Contract Bull Call Spread . Old price was $22....
Option values depend primarily on time and volatility -- enough time for prices to vary and sufficient price volatility to make time worthwhile. Options on metal futures reflect these valuation principles. To compare relative option valuations, futures and option prices are divided by strike prices. By this method, charts for silver, gold, copper and aluminum options are shown for several expiration dates. Aluminum options on June 27 had option price curves with slopes close to 1.00 for lower strikes. Such a pattern would have an advantage with call options at the upper end of the curve participating in rising futures prices while having downside protection with lower slopes as the futures price declines. However, this strategy depends on option price curves staying high enough so there...
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