This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideological polarization, and contested nominations in both parties inclined the electorate to an even division. McCain's more centrist record and Obama's race also seemed to favor the Republicans. Taken together, these factors set the stage for a closely decided election. It was shaping up that way in the polls until the Wall Street meltdown hit in mid-September. It was the "game changer" that tipped the election to Obama.
One of the central questions surrounding the 2008 presidential election is the role of race in shaping electoral choice among non-Hispanic whites, and whether race played an equivalent role among Hispanics, whose willingness to vote for an African American candidate was raised as an uncertainty during the primary campaign. The authors argue that, beyond the usual association of racial sentiment with party preference, the effect of Obama's race on the 2008 election is significant, but substantially smaller among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites. Although Latino voters often express racial sentiments that are indistinguishable from whites, there was a significant disconnect between those racial sentiments and Latinos' vote choice and evaluations of candidate Obama. The authors explo...
INDIANA Vanderburgh
In the 2008 presidential election cycle, data from the National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) showed that the gap between self-identified Democrats and Republicans widened from where it was after the 2004 presidential election. The Democratic edge grew from nearly 4 points in the 2004 NAES to almost 9 points in the 2008 NAES. This change reverses the trend, observed since the 2000 NAES, showing a narrowing of the gap. This article tracks the national trend from October 2007 through the November 2008 presidential general election to show that party self-identification fluctuated during the 2008 election season. Using both the 2008 NAES telephone rolling cross-sectional survey and the 2008 NAES Internet Panel, the authors document this national trend and show where the shifts occurred ...
Sometimes an event is just so big, and so life-altering, that it seems simultaneously to happen in an instant, and unfold in slow motion over the course of 20 years. Once it's all over, everyone emerges from the steaming rubble needing to compare notes, share stories, and sort out what exactly went down back there anyway. Events in this category include: childbirth, 9/11 and the 2008 presidential election.
Using data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES), this study finds that during the general election, adults in the United States were more likely to report that John McCain, who was 71 during the 2008 primaries and 72 in the general election, was "too old to be president" than to report that Barack Obama was "too young to be president." The percentage of the population subscribing to these views was not a constant in the general election. Instead, the belief that McCain was "too old to be president" increased across the campaign period, while the belief that Obama was "too young to be president" declined. Throughout the general election, major party identifiers were more likely to believe that the other major party candidate's age was a liability. Newspaper consumption...
[...] the papers cover a wide variety of topics, from influences on the vote, to campaign dynamics, to election rhetoric, to the role of race. [...] these papers make use of a variety of data, including old workhorse sources, such as the American National Election Studies and election data, but also data from the National Annenberg Election Study and the 2008 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, as well as data on presidential rhetoric and other presidential preference polls.
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